It's the same story every year. Nobody knows anything before Week 1. They watch the games, and now they know everything.

Yes, teams like Kansas City and Atlanta played poorly on Sunday, but let's take a breath before we start giving them double-digit headstarts. (The Chiefs and Falcons are getting 10-plus points this weekend in Jacksonville and Chicago, respectively.)

The Chiefs are a team with more upside than one might think. Let's not forget that Larry Johnson (10 carries for 43 yards versus Houston) held out until late in the preseason and might take a few gallops to find his groove. Last year, he rushed for 68 yards in Week 1. In Week 2, it was 126.

The Falcons also have reason for optimism. While Joey Harrington is being crucified for his two-interceptions-for-touchdowns performance against the Vikings, he still completed 23 of 32 pass attempts. That's pretty good. Not to mention, his second pick was bobbled by Atlanta receiver Michael Jenkins before falling into the hands of Antoine Winfield, who returned it 14 yards for the score.

Oh, and in case you missed it, the Jags lost to Tennessee 13-10 in Week 1, allowing 282 rushing yards to the Titans while gaining just 72 of their own. Meanwhile, the Bears managed an entire field goal in losing 14-3 at San Diego.

So why isn't the sky falling in Jacksonville and Chicago, too?

Buffalo's bend-don't-break defense was at its finest against Denver last Sunday. While several Broncos had strong individual performances - Jay Cutler threw for over 300 yards, Travis Henry rushed for 139 and Javon Walker caught nine passes for 119 - the team could only find the end zone once.

Of its 10 possessions, Denver only got inside Buffalo's red zone twice. The Bills did an excellent job of bringing pressure on third down, holding Denver to a 27 percent conversion rate (3-for-11). Rookie LB Paul Posluszny registered nine tackles on defense and another on special teams, admirably filling in for London Fletcher-Baker, now with the Redskins.

So why, then, are oddsmakers opening the Bills as 10-point dogs in Pittsburgh?

Sticking with the aforementioned theme, the reactionists rule Week 1. The Steelers' domination of a woeful Cleveland team has everybody thinking big, but a closer look reveals that those 34 points were somewhat deceiving.

Cleveland's inability to protect the football saw Pittsburgh start three of their drives inside the Browns' 40-yard line... in the first quarter. And while everybody was busy lauding Ben Roethlisberger for his newfound passing prowess, he only completed 12 of his 23 attempts on the day. Of course, four of them went for touchdowns.

Buffalo boasts one of the finest special teams units in the NFL and has always been adept at winning the field position battle. They won't be giving Big Ben open shots at the end zone, either. Expect to see a lot of Willie Parker, clouds of dust and a game decided by three points or less.

It's not often you get a big home underdog with a very good chance of winning outright. But that's the case this Sunday in Tennessee where the hometown Titans are getting a touchdown versus the visiting Indianapolis Colts.

Last year, in two games versus the Super Bowl champs, Tennessee was hugely successful on the ground, rumbling for a combined 433 yards. As a result, the Titans easily covered the spread in both affairs, losing 14-13 at Indy as 17.5-point underdogs and winning 20-17 at home as 7.5-point dogs.

Dating back to Nov. 19, the Titans have won seven of their last eight games, and even though Travis Henry, who featured prominently in 2006, is now with Denver, it appears they've found a more-than-adequate replacement at running back.

Chris Brown ran for 175 yards on 19 carries Sunday at Jacksonville and was a big reason why the Titans won the time of possession game by a huge margin, 36:55 to 23:05, as well as gained 279 total rushing yards, a franchise record.

"They [the Jaguars] knew we were going to run and couldn't stop it," Brown said. "Their defense is built to stop the run, and our offense is to run. I said all week [in practice], 'Let the best man win.'"

To be fair, the Colts did well against the run in their opener against New Orleans, limiting Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister to just 76 yards on 22 carries combined. However, this is the same Indianapolis team that allowed 173.0 rushing yards per game in 2006, the worst by far in the NFL.

This trend began last season when, despite a mothballed QB and a general lack of offensive talent, the Packers hung around the playoff picture until the final weekend, eventually finishing 8-8.

How they did it wasn't largely known outside of Wisconsin, but now it's becoming apparent - Green Bay has one of the best defensive lines and linebacking corps in the NFL.

Consider Sunday's game against Philadelphia. With little help on offense - the Pack could only muster 215 total yards and nine points - Green Bay's front seven controlled the dynamic backfield of Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook. Westbrook's 85 rushing yards on 20 carries marked the first time in his career he's rushed 20 or more times without gaining 100 yards, while McNabb only completed 45 percent of his passes.

While the Packers only recorded one sack, they were able to pressure McNabb, especially early in the game. A.J. Hawk flushed him out of the pocket on a blitz, resulting in Nick Barnett's pick of a pass intended for Hank Baskett.

Defensive ends Aaron Kampman and Cullen Jenkins were also relentless in rushing McNabb while tackles Ryan Pickett and Johnny Jolly didn't give up much down the middle.

This week, the Pack head to the Meadowlands to take on a battered Giants team. New York faces the prospect of playing without starting RB Brandon Jacobs and QB Eli Manning, the latter suffering with a bruised or dislocated AC joint, depending on which source you talk to.

Look for Green Bay to come out blitzing and test whichever QB New York decides to play: a potentially injured Manning, 285-pound Jared "the Hefty Lefty" Lorenzen or 31-year-old journeyman Anthony Wright.